The article looks at the decline in the world’s population growth rate over the past ten years and what is believed as the three major factors for such stagnation. Such factors are as follows: 1) age structure, 2) India and China’s, the two most populated countries, fertility trend, 3) and although the number of developing countries with sustained declines in fertility levels rose greatly in the late 1960s and 1970s, but in the 1980s has dropped considerably. Some countries continue to have high levels of fertility that carries a certain influence on the world’s overall growth rate.
In the 1980s a rising birth rate was almost expected due to the population age structure, those women who were born during the 1950s and 1960s had reached their peak of childbearing in the 1970s and 1980s. Thus, intensifying the upward pressure on the birth rate and the population growth rate in the 1970s and even more so in 1980s. This is seen through the ratio of the crude birth rate to the total fertility rate. As for the prospects of the 1990s, a decline in the growth rate is favored, for the proportion of the population will be at their peak of childbearing years will have declined as well. Although this change is rather small, it will exert a downward pressure on the rate of growth; this should continue into the twenty-first century.
Together China and India make up over a third of the world population, thus slowing down their fertility trends carries a significant impact on the entire world’s growth rate. During the 1970s India’s declined was calculated to be about one child, therefore it was predicted that the birth rate was 4.7 children per women. However, during the 1980s in China the fertility trends had fallen to about four children per women. It appears as if both countries continue to have a decline in fertility since the 1970s. But such decline is necessary because of the great affect that these two countries have on the world growth rate trend.
Countries are often placed into categories depending on their fertility rates. First category is “pre-transition”, those who are just beginning to have a decline in fertility; next being “late-transition”, those who’s fertility had already began to show significant decline typically starting after the 1950s; and lastly “early-transition”, those countries who’s fertility had already began to show significant decline beginning before the 1950s. By using such classifications one is able to graph the number of countries in each category and look at the growth rate of each. For example, the late-transition countries fertility began to decline during the mid-1960s. By 1975 only a few countries joined the other countries in the category of late-transitions and between 1975 and 1985 even less countries started to have fertility declines of any significance. “The fact that the onset of the fertility transitions did not occur in any other populous countries between 1975 and 1985 contributed to the stagnation in the decline of the world growth rate.” (137).
In the 1990s, the growth rate of the late-transitions has decline by about two percent, however the pre-transition countries’ growth rate has increased to over three percent, thus the fertility rate among these countries has remained fairly stable. In order to continue to have declines in fertility the Government is going to have to education it’s people on family planning and improve the women’s role in society, especially to those in rural areas. Typically, women in urban areas and have received some form of education have fewer children than those in rural areas.
In conclusion, there are many uncertainties about the future fertility, but we do know that a decline in fertility is linked to the socio-economic development and programs related to family planning. Thus, the Government of each country plays an important role in the decline of fertility, which will vary depending on the level of commitment.