The Modern Demographic Transition Theory
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The Fall in Death Rates
The modern theory of the demographic transition is based on studies of
the European experience in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. It was observed
that as per capita incomes rose over many decades, nutrition improved and
mortality fell, particularly infant mortality |
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The Fall in Birth Rates
After a lag of some years the birth rate would also begin to fall for
a variety of reasons. With a lower death rate, families could provde for
old age with fewer births. As per capita incomes rose, the opportunity costs
of women's time increased. Furthemore as incomes rose, children became less
of an economic asset and more of an economic burden. |
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Population Growth
During the period that the crude death rate was below the crude
birth rate, the rate of natural increase (RNI) would rise and population
would grow at an increasing rate. As birth rates fell, the RNI would gradually
fall to zero. At the end of the process, the population would have increased
in size and the age structure would have changed from triangular to rectangular.
That is, the population would have grown older. |
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