Kling and Prichett (1995) look at the economic performance within various countries and attempt to determine whether there are conditions in which population growth would worsen it. Such relationships, within the confines of this study, are defined by things such as: region, income class, and a measure of land scarcity. They start by looking at the basic facts about population growth and economic performance, than test and examine a simple econometrics equation as well as changing the parameter of the slope. And lastly, explain their basic results.
When examining other research it appears as if there is no significant evidence has been found to prove there is a relationship between a countries’ per capita output growth rates and ones’ population growth rate. But yet others believe the population growth rate impact simply depends and differs across countries. However, Kling and Prichett still attempt to find an “empirical reconciliation of the two views” (2).
Through a series of regression analysis, it appears as though there is an insignificant relationship between the growth in the labor force and the growth of output per worker. Although it shows to be a better estimate than those before, the question is still left unanswered. Thus there is room for both viewpoints to be argues; there is no strong relationship or “it depends”.
Similarly, Pritchett (1994) examines population growth and it’s effect it has on the growth of output per worker using a combination of factors of production and a residual. Pritchett first looks at past theories that were thought to have played a role in population growth. Secondly he estimates and examines the relationship between the growths of per worker physical capital, than between the population growth and level of education in each country’s labor force. And lastly, the effect population growth has on the residual growth.
Again, there does not appear to be any type of relationship the population growth and production factors. Through Prichett’s regression analysis “there is no relationship between the rate of capital accumulation per worker and the rate of population growth” (24). However, the data does show that capital per worker grew faster when the rate of the population growth was growing faster. Similarly, one’s labor force’s education does not affect the population growth rate. And, again, the question is still left unanswered.
The factors to which population growth does have an effect on the economy should be a priority in determining. Although the question may never be answered, such factors may differ for each country. And, even so, it may differ depending on the time frame in which such data is examined. A general equation will most likely never be found, although some factors may play a bigger one than others, but it may take time to figure out and determine what the real answer. Each country is different and different factors affect it’s economy and population differently and although we want to summarizes all it’s happenings into one or two equations it simply may not be possible.
(1) Where in the World is Population Growth Bad? By Jeff Kling and Lant Prichett, World Bank, 1995.
(2) “Population, Factor Accumulation and Productivity” by Land Prichett, World Bank Working Paper, September 28, 1994, pp. 1-31.