The Components of Demographic Change

---

The Components of Demographic Change
Contents: The Problem Same Growth Rate-Different Components The Effect of an Increase in Demographic Rates
The Problem The rate of natural increase, (RNI) depends on the Crude Birth Rate, (CBR) and the Crude Death Rate, (CDR). At the beginning of the demographic transition (A) both rates are high and the RNI is low. The RNI will also be low at the end of the transition (B) when the CBR and CDR are both low. Thus, the same rate of population growth can correspond to two very different demographic situations (A and B).
Same Growth Rate-Different Components The same growth rate might have two very different effects on the growth rate of per capita income, depending on its components. Thus it is neccessary to measure the separate effect of changes in the CBR and CDR an the growth rate of per capita income G(Y/P).
The Effect of an Increase in Demographic Rates on the Growth Rate of GDP Per Capita The table to the right, based on Allen Kelley's findings, shows that since the 1970s, both decreases in birth rates and decreases in death rates tend to increase the rate of growth of per capita income. Thus, nations can improve their levels of living by moving rapidly through the demographic transition, as did most countries of East Asia..	The Effect of an Increase in Demographic Rates on the Growth Rate of GDP Per Capita  Decade  CBR  CDR  1960s  positive  negative  1970s  negative  negative  1980s  negative negative

Back to the top