World population growth is a topic that is frequently debated in terms of many issues ranging from economic impacts to food supply. In the articles by Gerhard Heilig, "How Many People Can Be Fed on Earth?" (1994), Julian Simon, "What Are the Limits on Food Production?" (1996), and Vaclav Smil, "How Many People Can the Earth Feed" (1994), one realizes that the global food supply is not a limitation. The world will be able to produce enough food for ten billion people as long as there are no social, economic, and political limitations.
First of all, before discussing if it is possible to produce enough food
for a population of ten billion, it is important to understand how much
food the average person needs to survive. Many studies have been conducted
to determine the average amount of calories that an individual needs to
take in on a daily basis. But, what is interesting about these studies is
that they have found that there is no single minimum of food energy supply
that is applicable to all populations. It is possible that whole populations
can live with food intakes way below the norm (Smil 1994, p. 263). The point
here is that the amount of food needed to survive is not realistic; it has
been overestimated.
The four main limitations to agricultural production are land, water, climate,
and fossil energy (Heilig 1994, p. 216). In considering land first, it is
a limited resource and it is believed that land has some natural constraints,
but these constraints can be easily overcome through modern technology (Heilig
1994, p.219) as well as new farming practices.
Today there are techniques available that can expand arable land and increase
yields on marginal soils, or better yet improve the efficiency of crop production
(Heilig 1994, p. 220). Some examples of changes in simple farming practices
that can increase food production are multiple harvests (Heilig 1994, p.
221), switching from non-food to food crops (Heilig 1994, p. 222), knowing
how to plant, knowing when to plant, and crop rotations (Smil 1994, p. 267).
Beyond simple farming adjustments, there are technological innovations that
have helped to increase output. Probably the two most notable examples are
fish farming and food factories. With both of these examples, land is not
a constraint. It is possible to be build a food factory that is one hundred
and forty miles square, which is about the area of Massachusetts and Vermont
combined, that can feed the entire current population of the world (Simon
1996, p. 101 and 104). Food factories are already being used today to produce
lettuce in Japan (Heilig 1994, p. 242). The product that they are producing
is more appealing to the consumer because it is looks essentially perfect
and it is more consistent on a daily basis than crops grown in a field (Simon
1996, p. 101).
Probably a more serious constraint on agricultural output is water. It is
not that there is a shortage of water on a global scale, ninety- two percent
of the world's water reserve is untouched, but that the world's water supplies
are not distributed evenly (Heilig 1994, p. 229). As was the case with land,
there are simple adjustments that can be made to ease water shortages as
well as more complex ones. Some of the simplest things that can be done
are carefully scheduling irrigation, matching crops to the water supply,
and confining beef to grass land (Smil 1994, p. 270 and 278). The more complex
adjustments that can be made include pumping water over long distances (even
between countries) (Heilig 1994, p. 231), expanding irrigation, and cleaning
and recycling schemes just to name a couple (Heilig 1994, p. 239). Whatever
the adjustment is that needs to be made, it is important to remember that
there is enough water on this earth, it is just a matter of managing it
correctly.
The last two categories that directly effect food production are climate
and fossil energy. Climate is definitely a limitation in agricultural production,
but the world's farmers are no longer completely dependent on it (Heilig
1994, p. 234). Technology has made it possible for farmers to grow certain
crops in climates that would have been previously unfavorable. They have
been able to do this through the use of things like greenhouses and bioengineering.
Fossil fuels are the last main category associated with agricultural production
and they probably have the least to do with it. Everyone agrees that with
innovations such as nitrogenous fertilizers, irrigation, pesticides, and
agricultural machinery, global agricultural output would go up (Heilig 1994,
p. 235). But, that is not where the problem lies. Very few fossil fuels
are used in agricultural production. Look at the list above, only agricultural
machinery is dependent on fossil fuels. The actual act of farming does not
rely heavily on fossil fuels; it is the processes after harvesting that
do, such as packaging and transportation (Heilig 1994, p. 235).
Not only do the processes after harvesting require a lot of fossil fuels,
they are also inefficient and as a result anywhere from one to ten percent
of the output is lost (Smil 1994, p. 259). One way that these losses could
be avoided is better storage facilities (Simon 1996, p. 97).
As has been described above, there are all sorts of ways, ranging from crop
adjustments to technological innovations, that agricultural production can
be increased. But, in order for farmers to want to increase output, there
needs to be scarcity in the market. There will only be scarcity in the market
if population goes up. When population goes up, there will be an increased
demand for food. With the increased demand for food, inventories will go
down and prices will go up. As prices rise, farmers and scientists are pressured
to finds ways to make farming cheaper and more efficient. So, in the short
run an increase in population is not advantageous, but in the long run everyone
is better off (Simon 1996, p. 97). This is theoretically what should happen
in the real world and it is what would happen in the absence of political,
economic, and social constraints.
The slowing down of agricultural output can be brought on by political,
social, and economic problems. In Africa they have had so many political
problems, as is the case with many third world countries, that they endured
a famine, which had nothing to do with scarcity of food. The political leaders
imposed the famine in order to get their policies across (Heilig 1994, p.
249).
Social problems can also contribute to a decrease in food production. Issues
such as social inequality and human capital are at the heart of this matter.
If a population is chronically ill, it will be impossible for them to produce
the maximum amount of food (Heilig 1994, p. 250-251). But more importantly,
cultural traditions limit the size of agricultural production. It is the
case in some cultures that they do not believe in agricultural modernization.
Thus, they cannot get the most out of their resources. Without modernization
in these societies, they are limiting themselves in other ways. It will
not be possible for them to develop necessary skills like education if everyone
is busy laboring in the traditional manner (Heilig 1994, p. 251).
Lastly, economic constraints may limit the amount of food produced. The
most obvious reason that economics may be a problem is that in order for
societies to move towards modernization, they need capital. This is not
always an easy thing to get especially in a developing country. But, beyond
capital other economic problems exist too. A few examples are inefficient
market structures, production regulations, and international trade restrictions
(Heilig 1994, p. 252).
In conclusion, it is entirely possible that the earth will be able to hold
ten billion people in the future. Basic economic theory tells us that with
an increased demand for food, prices will rise for a short time and as a
response to high prices, new technologies will have to be introduced and
eventually prices will fall. There are no physical limitations on earth
to restrict food production. Land, water, climate, and fossil fuels all
pose their own problems to agricultural production, but all of those problems
can be overcome through simple changes in methodologies or new technology.
There are no reasons other than political, social, and economic constraints
standing in the way of population growth. Hopefully when the time comes,
globalization will be farther along and the political, social, and economic
problems will be overcome.
Gerhard Heilig, "How Many People Can Be Fed on Earth?" in Wolfgang
Lutz,
(editor), The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today?,
Earthscan Publications, London, 1994, Ch. 10, p. 207-261.
Julian Simon, "What Are the Limits on Food Production?" in
The Ultimate
Resource II, Princeton University Press, 1996, Chapter 6, p. 97-106.
Vaclav Smil, "How Many People Can the Earth Feed?" in Population
and
Development Review, Vol. 20, No. 2, June 1994, p. 255-92.
Sarah Brophy
EC 428
Prof. Horlacher
Presentation Paper I- Population Growth and
The Food Supply
10/3/01
"Will the World be able to Feed a Population of 10 Billion? - Yes!"
World population growth is a topic that is frequently debated in terms
of many issues ranging from economic impacts to food supply. In the articles
by Gerhard Heilig, "How Many People Can Be Fed on Earth?" (1994),
Julian Simon, "What Are the Limits on Food Production?" (1996),
and Vaclav Smil, "How Many People Can the Earth Feed" (1994),
one realizes that the global food supply is not a limitation. The world
will be able to produce enough food for ten billion people as long as there
are no social, economic, and political limitations.
First of all, before discussing if it is possible to produce enough food
for a population of ten billion, it is important to understand how much
food the average person needs to survive. Many studies have been conducted
to determine the average amount of calories that an individual needs to
take in on a daily basis. But, what is interesting about these studies is
that they have found that there is no single minimum of food energy supply
that is applicable to all populations. It is possible that whole populations
can live with food intakes way below the norm (Smil 1994, p. 263). The point
here is that the amount of food needed to survive is not realistic; it has
been overestimated.
The four main limitations to agricultural production are land, water, climate,
and fossil energy (Heilig 1994, p. 216). In considering land first, it is
a limited resource and it is believed that land has some natural constraints,
but these constraints can be easily overcome through modern technology (Heilig
1994, p.219) as well as new farming practices.
Today there are techniques available that can expand arable land and increase
yields on marginal soils, or better yet improve the efficiency of crop production
(Heilig 1994, p. 220). Some examples of changes in simple farming practices
that can increase food production are multiple harvests (Heilig 1994, p.
221), switching from non-food to food crops (Heilig 1994, p. 222), knowing
how to plant, knowing when to plant, and crop rotations (Smil 1994, p. 267).
Beyond simple farming adjustments, there are technological innovations that
have helped to increase output. Probably the two most notable examples are
fish farming and food factories. With both of these examples, land is not
a constraint. It is possible to be build a food factory that is one hundred
and forty miles square, which is about the area of Massachusetts and Vermont
combined, that can feed the entire current population of the world (Simon
1996, p. 101 and 104). Food factories are already being used today to produce
lettuce in Japan (Heilig 1994, p. 242). The product that they are producing
is more appealing to the consumer because it is looks essentially perfect
and it is more consistent on a daily basis than crops grown in a field (Simon
1996, p. 101).
Probably a more serious constraint on agricultural output is water. It is
not that there is a shortage of water on a global scale, ninety- two percent
of the world's water reserve is untouched, but that the world's water supplies
are not distributed evenly (Heilig 1994, p. 229). As was the case with land,
there are simple adjustments that can be made to ease water shortages as
well as more complex ones. Some of the simplest things that can be done
are carefully scheduling irrigation, matching crops to the water supply,
and confining beef to grass land (Smil 1994, p. 270 and 278). The more complex
adjustments that can be made include pumping water over long distances (even
between countries) (Heilig 1994, p. 231), expanding irrigation, and cleaning
and recycling schemes just to name a couple (Heilig 1994, p. 239). Whatever
the adjustment is that needs to be made, it is important to remember that
there is enough water on this earth, it is just a matter of managing it
correctly.
The last two categories that directly effect food production are climate
and fossil energy. Climate is definitely a limitation in agricultural production,
but the world's farmers are no longer completely dependent on it (Heilig
1994, p. 234). Technology has made it possible for farmers to grow certain
crops in climates that would have been previously unfavorable. They have
been able to do this through the use of things like greenhouses and bioengineering.
Fossil fuels are the last main category associated with agricultural production
and they probably have the least to do with it. Everyone agrees that with
innovations such as nitrogenous fertilizers, irrigation, pesticides, and
agricultural machinery, global agricultural output would go up (Heilig 1994,
p. 235). But, that is not where the problem lies. Very few fossil fuels
are used in agricultural production. Look at the list above, only agricultural
machinery is dependent on fossil fuels. The actual act of farming does not
rely heavily on fossil fuels; it is the processes after harvesting that
do, such as packaging and transportation (Heilig 1994, p. 235).
Not only do the processes after harvesting require a lot of fossil fuels,
they are also inefficient and as a result anywhere from one to ten percent
of the output is lost (Smil 1994, p. 259). One way that these losses could
be avoided is better storage facilities (Simon 1996, p. 97).
As has been described above, there are all sorts of ways, ranging from crop
adjustments to technological innovations, that agricultural production can
be increased. But, in order for farmers to want to increase output, there
needs to be scarcity in the market. There will only be scarcity in the market
if population goes up. When population goes up, there will be an increased
demand for food. With the increased demand for food, inventories will go
down and prices will go up. As prices rise, farmers and scientists are pressured
to finds ways to make farming cheaper and more efficient. So, in the short
run an increase in population is not advantageous, but in the long run everyone
is better off (Simon 1996, p. 97). This is theoretically what should happen
in the real world and it is what would happen in the absence of political,
economic, and social constraints.
The slowing down of agricultural output can be brought on by political,
social, and economic problems. In Africa they have had so many political
problems, as is the case with many third world countries, that they endured
a famine, which had nothing to do with scarcity of food. The political leaders
imposed the famine in order to get their policies across (Heilig 1994, p.
249).
Social problems can also contribute to a decrease in food production. Issues
such as social inequality and human capital are at the heart of this matter.
If a population is chronically ill, it will be impossible for them to produce
the maximum amount of food (Heilig 1994, p. 250-251). But more importantly,
cultural traditions limit the size of agricultural production. It is the
case in some cultures that they do not believe in agricultural modernization.
Thus, they cannot get the most out of their resources. Without modernization
in these societies, they are limiting themselves in other ways. It will
not be possible for them to develop necessary skills like education if everyone
is busy laboring in the traditional manner (Heilig 1994, p. 251).
Lastly, economic constraints may limit the amount of food produced. The
most obvious reason that economics may be a problem is that in order for
societies to move towards modernization, they need capital. This is not
always an easy thing to get especially in a developing country. But, beyond
capital other economic problems exist too. A few examples are inefficient
market structures, production regulations, and international trade restrictions
(Heilig 1994, p. 252).
In conclusion, it is entirely possible that the earth will be able to hold
ten billion people in the future. Basic economic theory tells us that with
an increased demand for food, prices will rise for a short time and as a
response to high prices, new technologies will have to be introduced and
eventually prices will fall. There are no physical limitations on earth
to restrict food production. Land, water, climate, and fossil fuels all
pose their own problems to agricultural production, but all of those problems
can be overcome through simple changes in methodologies or new technology.
There are no reasons other than political, social, and economic constraints
standing in the way of population growth. Hopefully when the time comes,
globalization will be farther along and the political, social, and economic
problems will be overcome.
Bibliography
Gerhard Heilig, "How Many People Can Be Fed on Earth?" in Wolfgang
Lutz,
(editor), The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today?,
Earthscan Publications, London, 1994, Ch. 10, p. 207-261.
Julian Simon, "What Are the Limits on Food Production?" in
The Ultimate
Resource II, Princeton University Press, 1996, Chapter 6, p. 97-106.
Vaclav Smil, "How Many People Can the Earth Feed?" in Population
and
Development Review, Vol. 20, No. 2, June 1994, p. 255-92.
Sarah Brophy
EC 428
Prof. Horlacher
Presentation Paper I- Population Growth and
The Food Supply
10/3/01
"Will the World be able to Feed a Population of 10 Billion? - Yes!"
World population growth is a topic that is frequently debated in terms
of many issues ranging from economic impacts to food supply. In the articles
by Gerhard Heilig, "How Many People Can Be Fed on Earth?" (1994),
Julian Simon, "What Are the Limits on Food Production?" (1996),
and Vaclav Smil, "How Many People Can the Earth Feed" (1994),
one realizes that the global food supply is not a limitation. The world
will be able to produce enough food for ten billion people as long as there
are no social, economic, and political limitations.
First of all, before discussing if it is possible to produce enough food
for a population of ten billion, it is important to understand how much
food the average person needs to survive. Many studies have been conducted
to determine the average amount of calories that an individual needs to
take in on a daily basis. But, what is interesting about these studies is
that they have found that there is no single minimum of food energy supply
that is applicable to all populations. It is possible that whole populations
can live with food intakes way below the norm (Smil 1994, p. 263). The point
here is that the amount of food needed to survive is not realistic; it has
been overestimated.
The four main limitations to agricultural production are land, water, climate,
and fossil energy (Heilig 1994, p. 216). In considering land first, it is
a limited resource and it is believed that land has some natural constraints,
but these constraints can be easily overcome through modern technology (Heilig
1994, p.219) as well as new farming practices.
Today there are techniques available that can expand arable land and increase
yields on marginal soils, or better yet improve the efficiency of crop production
(Heilig 1994, p. 220). Some examples of changes in simple farming practices
that can increase food production are multiple harvests (Heilig 1994, p.
221), switching from non-food to food crops (Heilig 1994, p. 222), knowing
how to plant, knowing when to plant, and crop rotations (Smil 1994, p. 267).
Beyond simple farming adjustments, there are technological innovations that
have helped to increase output. Probably the two most notable examples are
fish farming and food factories. With both of these examples, land is not
a constraint. It is possible to be build a food factory that is one hundred
and forty miles square, which is about the area of Massachusetts and Vermont
combined, that can feed the entire current population of the world (Simon
1996, p. 101 and 104). Food factories are already being used today to produce
lettuce in Japan (Heilig 1994, p. 242). The product that they are producing
is more appealing to the consumer because it is looks essentially perfect
and it is more consistent on a daily basis than crops grown in a field (Simon
1996, p. 101).
Probably a more serious constraint on agricultural output is water. It is
not that there is a shortage of water on a global scale, ninety- two percent
of the world's water reserve is untouched, but that the world's water supplies
are not distributed evenly (Heilig 1994, p. 229). As was the case with land,
there are simple adjustments that can be made to ease water shortages as
well as more complex ones. Some of the simplest things that can be done
are carefully scheduling irrigation, matching crops to the water supply,
and confining beef to grass land (Smil 1994, p. 270 and 278). The more complex
adjustments that can be made include pumping water over long distances (even
between countries) (Heilig 1994, p. 231), expanding irrigation, and cleaning
and recycling schemes just to name a couple (Heilig 1994, p. 239). Whatever
the adjustment is that needs to be made, it is important to remember that
there is enough water on this earth, it is just a matter of managing it
correctly.
The last two categories that directly effect food production are climate
and fossil energy. Climate is definitely a limitation in agricultural production,
but the world's farmers are no longer completely dependent on it (Heilig
1994, p. 234). Technology has made it possible for farmers to grow certain
crops in climates that would have been previously unfavorable. They have
been able to do this through the use of things like greenhouses and bioengineering.
Fossil fuels are the last main category associated with agricultural production
and they probably have the least to do with it. Everyone agrees that with
innovations such as nitrogenous fertilizers, irrigation, pesticides, and
agricultural machinery, global agricultural output would go up (Heilig 1994,
p. 235). But, that is not where the problem lies. Very few fossil fuels
are used in agricultural production. Look at the list above, only agricultural
machinery is dependent on fossil fuels. The actual act of farming does not
rely heavily on fossil fuels; it is the processes after harvesting that
do, such as packaging and transportation (Heilig 1994, p. 235).
Not only do the processes after harvesting require a lot of fossil fuels,
they are also inefficient and as a result anywhere from one to ten percent
of the output is lost (Smil 1994, p. 259). One way that these losses could
be avoided is better storage facilities (Simon 1996, p. 97).
As has been described above, there are all sorts of ways, ranging from crop
adjustments to technological innovations, that agricultural production can
be increased. But, in order for farmers to want to increase output, there
needs to be scarcity in the market. There will only be scarcity in the market
if population goes up. When population goes up, there will be an increased
demand for food. With the increased demand for food, inventories will go
down and prices will go up. As prices rise, farmers and scientists are pressured
to finds ways to make farming cheaper and more efficient. So, in the short
run an increase in population is not advantageous, but in the long run everyone
is better off (Simon 1996, p. 97). This is theoretically what should happen
in the real world and it is what would happen in the absence of political,
economic, and social constraints.
The slowing down of agricultural output can be brought on by political,
social, and economic problems. In Africa they have had so many political
problems, as is the case with many third world countries, that they endured
a famine, which had nothing to do with scarcity of food. The political leaders
imposed the famine in order to get their policies across (Heilig 1994, p.
249).
Social problems can also contribute to a decrease in food production. Issues
such as social inequality and human capital are at the heart of this matter.
If a population is chronically ill, it will be impossible for them to produce
the maximum amount of food (Heilig 1994, p. 250-251). But more importantly,
cultural traditions limit the size of agricultural production. It is the
case in some cultures that they do not believe in agricultural modernization.
Thus, they cannot get the most out of their resources. Without modernization
in these societies, they are limiting themselves in other ways. It will
not be possible for them to develop necessary skills like education if everyone
is busy laboring in the traditional manner (Heilig 1994, p. 251).
Lastly, economic constraints may limit the amount of food produced. The
most obvious reason that economics may be a problem is that in order for
societies to move towards modernization, they need capital. This is not
always an easy thing to get especially in a developing country. But, beyond
capital other economic problems exist too. A few examples are inefficient
market structures, production regulations, and international trade restrictions
(Heilig 1994, p. 252).
In conclusion, it is entirely possible that the earth will be able to hold
ten billion people in the future. Basic economic theory tells us that with
an increased demand for food, prices will rise for a short time and as a
response to high prices, new technologies will have to be introduced and
eventually prices will fall. There are no physical limitations on earth
to restrict food production. Land, water, climate, and fossil fuels all
pose their own problems to agricultural production, but all of those problems
can be overcome through simple changes in methodologies or new technology.
There are no reasons other than political, social, and economic constraints
standing in the way of population growth. Hopefully when the time comes,
globalization will be farther along and the political, social, and economic
problems will be overcome.
Bibliography
Gerhard Heilig, "How Many People Can Be Fed on Earth?" in Wolfgang
Lutz,
(editor), The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today?,
Earthscan Publications, London, 1994, Ch. 10, p. 207-261.
Julian Simon, "What Are the Limits on Food Production?" in
The Ultimate
Resource II, Princeton University Press, 1996, Chapter 6, p. 97-106.
Vaclav Smil, "How Many People Can the Earth Feed?" in Population
and
Development Review, Vol. 20, No. 2, June 1994, p. 255-92.