One of the predominant questions pondered by demographic economists and agricultural producers is, "Are we losing the race between population growth and food supply"? According to the CIA World Fact Book, the world's population growth rate is 1.25%. An answer to this question is hard to come by due to humans' shifting diets and changing fertility. Furthermore, the solution to any issue regarding food and population growth is blurred because food distribution is extremely unequal and most likely always will be. Regardless, the relationship between population growth and food supply is an issue whose augmenting importance and relevance is becoming more significant in every person's life.
In numerous developing nations, this rapid population growth makes it incredibly
difficult for agricultural production to stay abreast with this increasing
demand for food. Jacques Diouf of the National Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) stated, "Unfortunately, population growth continues to out-strip
food availability in many countries." The FAO defines "food security"
as, "a state of affairs where all people at all times have access to
safe and nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life" . By
this definition, approximately two billion people (1/3) lack food security.
This is due to the fact that they cannot grow enough food themselves, or
they simply cannot afford to purchase enough food in their domestic marketplace.
Consequently, they suffer from "micronutrient and protein energy deficiencies
in their diets".
While the world currently produces enough food to feed more than the billions
of people it inhabits, this food is not readily available to many millions
of people due to the inefficient food distribution that exists. While some
countries produce more than enough food for domestic use, others do not.
For activist groups in the United States, this is a topic of extreme interest.
There is an enormous amount of food that is wasted at every meal in this
country, while there are vast amounts of people who are starving in countries
like India. Therefore, any world strategy to improve food security must
reevaluate the current food distribution system. As of now, the supply of
food seems to be greater than the demand for food. Over the next couple
of decades, that could all change 180 degrees, which is for the worst.
The demand for food is determined by population growth, living standards,
and dietary preferences in addition to other factors. Currently, the world's
population is growing by more or less, 80 million people per year. Mathematically,
this equals one billion people per 12 to 13 years. Although the growth rate
is slowing, over the past couple centuries; the degree to which population
has grown has been unprecedented. In addition to our increasing population,
people are living longer lives. This raises the demand for food. According
to UN projections, the world could have over 8 billion people by the year
2025. 6.8 billion of these 8 billion will live in developing countries where
food is typically scarcer or not as available. Thanks to family planning
programs, fertility has decreased. However, the population is still growing
while medically, people are able to live longer. This is bound to put strain
on the amount of natural resources available to us. Unfortunately, in some
developing countries, the population is still growing at 2% to 3.5% per
year, which means the populations will double in 20 to 35 years.
With regards to changing diets, the consumption of meat has nearly quadrupled
in the last half of the century. This makes it more difficult to feed the
poor who cannot afford to eat any meat at all. Luckily, the world is still
in a time where the supply of food has out-paced the demand.
Since World War II, while population has doubled, food production has tripled.
However, this trend may now be changing for the worse because global grain
production has only risen minimally with grain supplies per capita falling.
This change is due to rapid population growth on the demand side, with higher
population densities in traditional agricultural areas, disintegration of
smaller farmstead, poor land management, and inappropriate agricultural
and economic policies all of which suppress supply.
Given the one-third of the world's population that lacks food security,
the FAO approximates that; "world food production would have to double
to provide food security for the 8 billion people projected for 2025."
Then, by 2050, this situation will be more challenging due to the FAO's
world population estimation of 9 billion.
Demand for food is increasing as the supply is diminishing due to rapid
population growth. Environmentally, "as people try to obtain higher
yields from heavily used natural resources, soil loss worsens, fresh water
becomes scarcer and pollution increases" . Consequently, the world's
capacity to develop food production very well may be diminishing.
As aforementioned, food distribution is an important issue facing the world
today. Food security could be improved for millions of people if the countries
with a food surplus redistributed the excess food to the countries that
lack the means of obtaining sufficient food. However, the present international
trade system works against poor countries meeting their needs through importation.
Prosperous countries produce enough food for themselves and for export.
Other wealthy nations who are not self sufficient in food production can
afford to import enough food and more. Moreover, the agricultural sectors
of developed countries are protected by trade barriers and incentives, which
include tariffs and/or price supports.
On the other hand, poor countries with a food deficit typically export only
one or two raw commodities. So, when the prices of export commodities fall
in the world market, or when prices of imported supplies rise, these nations
are hit hard. Although in recent times, raw commodity prices have risen,
over the past couple of decades, some commodities lost up to 60% of their
value. According to the FAO, in the year, 1991, "Africa lost an estimated
$5.6 billion due to declines in commodity prices" . Falling commodity
prices are usually good for consumers in wealthy nations, but devastating
to small-scale farmers in developing countries.
In the long run, the FAO argues that, "increased regional trade and
cooperation are important to raising living standards in poor countries
and to providing more affordable food. " It is the national governments
and international organizations that can help improve food distribution
systems and can implement original policies that make food more available
and affordable. Furthermore, "improved world markets for developing-country
agricultural produce could help provide more jobs in these nations, raise
incomes, reduce hunger and minimize pressures from subsistence farming on
the resource base." At the same time, the FAO insists that international
trade alone cannot solve the issue of food security because due to the population
growth trends and land degradation patterns, food production and environmental
capabilities are challenged.
The Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that over the next thirty
years, the amount of people who suffer from undernourishment will remain
high while the population growth rate continues to slow down. Although population
growth is slowing, the world's population will still be growing, increasing
the strain on natural resources. This information was released in a report
during the summer of 2000. Another report by the FAO examined trends in
world population growth and world food supply. This report produced the
same results. As the FAO estimates the world population to be 8 million
by the year 2030, they also find that population growth will gradually decelerate
while, the number of hungry and undernourished people will remain stubbornly
high". This same statement claimed that, "in 2015, there could
still be about 580 million people suffering from chronic undernourishment."
In accommodation with this slowing yet still growing rate of population
and stagnant natural food supply, the FAO expects that cereals will become
and remain the principal source of food supplies and will account for about
half of daily calorie intake. Specifically, the FAO maintains that half
of this increase will be for food, while about forty-four percent will be
for animal feed, especially in developing countries. This aspect is, "the
most dynamic element driving the world cereals economy" . The Food
and Agricultural Organization foresees that the production of cereals will
increase by almost "1,000 million" tons by the year 2030 from
the "1,840 million" tons currently produced. The FAO further predicts
that developing countries will become increasingly dependent on cereals,
resulting in intensified crop production and increased imports from developed
countries.
The net cereal imports of developing nations is expected to rise from 107
million tons (1995/1997) to 270 million in 2030 due to their increasing
dependence on cereal imports. Thus, by the year of 2030, the production
of crops in developing countries is likely to be 20 percent higher than
it was in 1997. According to the FAO, about 80 percent of this increase
will continue to come from the intensified crop production while the rest
will come from an expansion of cultivable land. Arable land in developing
nations is projected to increase by 12 percent by 2030. The role of irrigation
in developing countries will become more significant as well. Currently,
irrigation makes up about 40 percent of total crop production. This is anticipated
to increase to 47 percent by 2030. Irrigated areas in developing countries
is expected to expand from 197 million ha (1997) to 242 million ha in the
year 2030.
An additional issue with regards to agricultural production is the continuous
pressure on the environment.
"Deforestation, for instance, is expected to slow down as growth
in land used for agricultural production and growth in livestock production
is expected to diminish. In addition, the overuse of pesticides is likely
to decline as better technologies become available, stricter regulations
are enforced, and more emphasis is placed on organic agriculture."
The overall growth in worldwide meat demand and production is also expected
to slow, according to the FAO. It supposedly could reach an annual 1.9 percent
in the next couple of decades, compared with the 2.8 percent it was in the
past twenty years. In the mid 1970s, meat consumption per person in developing
countries went up from 11kg to 23kg presently, and it could reach 35kg by
2030. While meat consumption is very low in some nations, in others, such
as China and Brazil, it has reached relatively high levels, 39kg and 62kg
respectively . Moreover, the FAO warned that, "in developing countries,
there is a danger that large-scale commercial operations could displace
small-scale livestock farmers, thus exacerbating rural poverty." This
is one problem the world does not need.
The FAO states that although many people will remain undernourished when
the population reaches 8 billion, more people will have sufficient access
to food because the 8 billion people will be better fed. Despite this good
news, the FAO estimates that, "in 2015 there could still be about 580
million people suffering from chronic undernourishment."
The slowing population growth rate and the constant undernourishment figure
will, according to the FAO, cause world agriculture to grow at a slower
pace,
"From an annual 2.1 percent over the last two decades to 1.6 in the period to 2015 and to 1.3 percent up to 2030, but growth in agriculture will continue to outstrip world population growth of 1.2 percent up to 2015 and 0.8 percent in the period to 2030."
Given these statistics, it seems very clear that shortly after the year 2030, agricultural growth will not exceed population growth for very long.
In conclusion, population growth and food supply has been and is relatively
proportionate, although for many nations it does not seem that way. The
world's lack of motivation to fix this dilemma of poverty in poor countries
is ludicrous. It is a sin that wealthy countries have more than sufficient
food security and lets so much food goes to waste, while countless natives
or numerous nations starve to death. In less than half a century, population
growth will surpass the food supply and people will wish that they had not
wasted so much food in the past.
Bibliography
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